A Reminder: The Advance Estimate of Q2 GDP Growth Is…an Estimate
For instance, Goldman Sachs presents two forecasts for Q2 growth (SAAR): one for advance, and one for final. As of 7/19, the forecast of the advance release was -29.0%, and final was -33.0% (Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates, SAAR). Something to remember when contemplating the near future.
Figure 1: Real GDP (bn Ch.2012$, SAAR) (black line), potential GDP CBO estimate from July 2020 (gray line), from January 2020 (chartreuse line), HP filter (pink line), and CBO July 2020 projection (red line). Source: BEA, GDP 2020Q1 3rd release, and CBO, An Update of the Economic Outlook (July 2020), [data], Budget and Economic Outlook (January 2020), and author’s calculations.
In other words, not only is potential GDP an estimate; so too, to varying degrees, are all the GDP figures assoc...